Piramal Pharma's (PPLPHARMA) stock exemplifies Vaikarya’s strategy of investing in under-discovered, transformative changes across the market caps.
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Transformative changes can generate significant returns independent of market cycles. PPLPHARMA is up 13% since last week's results, 31% over the past two months, and has appreciated 2.7 times over the past year as the market recognises its transformation.
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Even larger companies undergoing such changes can remain under-discovered. The market's short-term focus often overlooks these companies. Despite a market cap nearing ₹16,000 Cr last year, PPLPHARMA received limited sell-side coverage and low institutional interest in 2023 due to prior business cycle challenges.
Below is a summary of Vaikarya’s thesis on PPLPHARMA, which articulates how we research and track the evidence of changes.
Piramal Pharma [Live] – CHANGES [Demerger, Industry Cycle, Management]

Margin collapse:
5%/7% EBITDA margins by Dec-22/9m vs 20% Pre-COVID. Industry factors + loss of talent to COVID vaccines in international sites + Internal execution misses on volumes and pricing in 2021-22
CHANGES
New COO – Herve (ex Lonza) since Jun 2022 for CDMO and Jeffery (ex-Accord/Sandoz/Pfizer) in Jun 2023 for CHG
Promoter infusing capital (rights) to invest behind good CDMO despite cyclical losses from generics
Out-of-favor/Under-researched
Domestic MF ownership % of float is 9.6%/5.8% (Dec-2023/Sep-2023) vs 28% at Divi
Coverage by few brokers vs 20+ at the peers
Industry cyclical headwinds since late CY21 to 2022 - 1) post COVID destocking in generic/API; 2) raw material inflation
Industry cyclical/margins improving from 2023
PPL beat Mar/Jun #s materially, returning to mid-teens growth with low to mid-teens margins
Nov-2022
New listing post demerger from a conglomerate amidst a weaker industry cycle
Investment Thesis
Market cap [2023]
₹ Cr
16K
Sector
Pharma
Float
ADTV
₹ Cr
10K
₹ Cr
60
Revenue Mix
CDMO (56%), Complex generics (32%), and India OTC brands (12%)
Overlooked Demerger
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Demerger from a conglomerate in 2022 during a negative Industry cycle
Change: Execution reset
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Company’s performance in CY21/22 materially disappointed - posting ~9% EBITDA in FY23 vs ~20% Pre-COVID. While losing talent overseas to COVID vaccine makers and industry cycle were key factors, internal operations also faltered. The COOs have been changed and are from Lonza/Accord
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Promoters infused capital (rights) to invest into a good part of CDMO despite having losses in generic CDMO. These overseas facilities, at low utilizations (<40%), are getting orders and will have significant operating leverage
Industry Cycle
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CDMO has a long runway for mid-teens+ growth (optionality to be in the 20s), benefitting from China +1 cycle, specifically from the US Biosecure Act
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CY23 is the start of the margin expansion year for the CDMO Industry after post-COVID challenges of RM inflation and generic drugs de-stocking
Key Risks being under-written
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FDA audits: The group has one of the best track records in Indian pharma.
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Weaker Biotech funding cycle has linkages to the Discovery/Development part of CDMO, ~20% of total revenues. Commoditized generic business is ~25%
Value outcomes
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Simply getting business on track has the potential to deliver c22-34% stock value CAGR over three years at 15-20x EBIT for a mid-teens plus growth (optionality to be in the early 20s) business. EBITDA margins can move back to normal levels of 20+% from 13+% in FY24. The company used to be 20+% Pre-COVID and FY21
Market View
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Under Covered: Coverage is low, with only a few brokers covering it compared with ~20s for CDMO leader
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Suspects company’s business to be too inferior as margin correction was higher vs peers. Management commentary did not inspire confidence till H1-23
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Leverage at ~4+x Net Debt/EBITDA is high for the primarily unleveled industry
Vaikarya View
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Our checks indicate that pre-demerger, sector-focused investors liked the pharma business but avoided conglomerate since the financial business was more significant and had cyclical challenges. Post-demerger, negative industry cycle and continued misses on margins have kept new investors away. Reversal of these will bring them back. The company has started addressing the leverage (capital infusion), and more will follow with business normalization
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Evidence of execution reset and some improvements in the industry cycle is emerging in margins up from Sep-23 and orders growth in 9mFY24 (mostly from innovators)
Process
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Meetings with company, competitors, PE investors, public investors (bullish and bearish) and industry experts
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Continued checks on strategic interest evolution in pharma. Proprietary work on margin evolution
Piramal Pharma => STOCK +18% on 2QFY25 results
Overall
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Revenue/EBITDA are ahead of street estimates by 3%/20%, leading to stock move of +18% today.
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Revenues grew 17% YoY and 15% QoQ and EBITDA grew 29% YoY and 67% QoQ. PAT growth was 4.5x YoY.
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The numbers this quarter further validated our thesis that the company is coming out of an adverse business cycle, which was accentuated by COVID.
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CDMO business is leading the growth path and quality of business. Operating leverage, cost initiatives and favourable business mix are expanding margins.
CDMO Business
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CDMO business grew 24% YoY and 25% QoQ. The business mix is changing for the better, with strong traction from on-patent commercial revenues, which are the highest-quality and highest-margin business. Piramal is undergoing capacity expansion in niche areas like conjugation, peptides, etc., which will improve the business mix.
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The US Biosecure Act provides meaningful optionality in this business.

Complex Hospital Generic Business
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The business grew 9% YoY driven by good volume growth.
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The company is expanding capacities in India to service the ROW markets with lower cost of manufacturing.
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The company is investing in new products to improve growth in the subsequent years.
India Consumer Healthcare Business
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This business grew 8% YoY and 5% QoQ.
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The company launched 9 new products and 13 new SKUs in 1HFY25.
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This business has reached critical mass, and the company will now focus on increasing profitability here.

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